Fallen Leafs

 There’s a starting rotation out there that has already had three different pitchers take no-hitters into the seventh inning this year. And it’s not the Giants, Cardinals or Yankees.

It’s those Roy Halladay-free Toronto Blue Jays, of course. And according to the Elias Sports Bureau, they’re the first team since the 1967 Orioles to have three different pitchers sustain no-hit bids that long before we even flipped the calendar to June. (via Jayson Stark/ESPN)

And with a whimper (actually, an error ridden, one-run loss against a team that is record-wise worse than the Bluebirds), the 2009 season for the Toronto Blue Jays has come to a merciful end this past Sunday.

If there are two pitchers who epitomize the type of talent the Toronto Blue Jays possess, but for one reason or another, can’t fully harness their talents and perform consistently, they are Brett Cecil and Brandon League.

Cecil was a highly touted prospect in Blue Jays land coming into this season (yes, all 11,000 of us). Selected in the 2005 1st Supplemental Round, Cecil quickly progressed from Single A Dunedin to Triple A Syracuse/Las Vegas with impressive statistics. As highlighted by The Prospect Corner, Brett Cecil was one of the most underrated pitching prospects in baseball. His stats compared favourably to immensely hyped David Price of the Tampa Bay Rays, and even surpassed him in many stats. In Double A at the age of 21, Brett Cecil posted 10.9 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 59% GB, and 2.76 FIP. As comparison, Zach Greinke posted stat lines of 8 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 44% GB, and 3.78 FIP at 22 years of age in AA. David Price accrued a line of 8.7 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 59% GB, and 3.96 FIP.* As TPC argues, only Francisco Liriano, Felix Hernandez, and Joba Chamberlain have reached AAA at age 21 with comparable or better stats than Cecil. But as he reached AAA, Cecil has struggled.

As Mop Up Duty analyzed earlier, Cecil has seen a major dip in all his stats with the Las Vegas 51’s. Granted the Pacific Coast League is generally noted as a hitter’s league, but Cecil’s inflated ERA and a pedestrian K:BB rating did not bode well. Indeed, when Cecil was promoted to the majors for good, Cecil can best be described as inconsistent. While he has pitched games striking out 9 batters, there are others where he has walked 5 and barely pitched 4 innings. In many instances, Cecil ran the gamut of both the highs and lows in the same game. Cecil has allowed a lot of base runners, which naturally increased his pitch totals and allowed batters to hone in on certain pitches. His ground ball ratings have fallen (42.6%) and his HR/9 has risen dramatically. Obviously, Cecil has to make a lot of adjustments for next season. But luckily for him, age is on his side and the Blue Jays will wait for him to put it all together. Tough to ignore the numbers he put up in the minor leagues and not see Cecil’s talent eventually shine through in the future.

Unlike Cecil’s youthful exuberance, Brandon League, heavily tattooed with spectacles that Rick “Wild Thing” Vaughan would be insanely jealous of, is the other conundrum of the spectrum. Armed with a fastball that averages 95 MPH, and a pitch HaleJon identifies as a sinker with ridiculous movement and the same velocity as his fastball, League is an incredibly gifted pitcher. When described as a pitcher possessing talents rarely seen in the game of baseball, you have yourself a hurler who is virtually un-hittable.

It is one of the many reasons why the venerable Ghostrunner on First has done an arduous (some say heroic) job in figuring out the enigma of one Brandon League for a few seasons now. And League was someone worthy of analyzing, especially after a 2.18 ERA, .230 OPP BA 2008 season. However, all that forward momentum from last season seems to have dissipated.

League has seen his GB% go down and his FB% increase by nearly double this year. For every legendary outing, such as the one that culminated with 3 innings of mastery against the Yankees, there is the clunker of epic proportions like the one that resulted in a grand slam just four days later in Tampa. He has pitched in much more games this year, while greatly increasing his K/9 (9.2) and SO/BB (3.62) rates. Yet, somehow League bookends months posting 1.54 and 1.32 ERAs with an eye-gouging August, posting an 8.31 ERA and 1.77 WHIP.

Perhaps, League only thrives against certain teams and as a result, should only be brought out against certain teams (again, the Yankees are his prey of choice). But GoF simply summarizes, “Relief pitchers who dominate meaningless appearances but struggle when it counts have a very limited shelf-life, and I wonder how long the love affair with Potential will last.”

For all the grief that the Blue Jays undertake from both fans and media, this is a team that has more than their share of talent. The pitching depth has been nothing short of a revelation. With the exception of Roy Halladay, the Blue Jays have an entirely different starting rotation from the 2008 season. Yet, the team ranks 6th in the AL. The bullpen is littered with players signed from the scrapheap or merely thrown as extras in trades, who have picked up the slack and performed rather well altogether. That was one of the greatest strengths of the now ex-General Manager JP Ricciardi.

With the most vilified man in Toronto now gone, will the Blue Jays automatically become better? I have my doubts, considering the problems aren’t singularly situated in the GM spot, but maximizing the existing talent on the team is imperative. Free agency and trades should only complement strong player development. Again, for all the hate Ricciardi endured over his eight years at the helm, he drafted his share of talent. What the Blue Jays can’t afford is when their players reflect the state of the team - inconsistency, confusion, exasperation.

Having said all that, however, with a season like 2009, can I truly blame the players?

*For reference sake, the elite pitchers in the last few years? Yes, Joba Chamberlain and Tim Lincecum. Chamberlain was astounding in Double A posting 14.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 54% GB, and 2.56 FIP at age 21. Lincecum, was even more dominant posting stats of 13.4 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 56% GB, and 1.70 FIP at age 22 in Triple A.